Organizational Change
Does your Organization Ignore the ‘Silent Evidence’ and Fall to Confirmation Bias?
Especially in relation to reports of harassment and discrimination.
Heard of ‘survival bias’? Confirmation bias?
The “silent evidence” often ignored…?
A famous case of survivor bias is the story of statistician Abraham Wald, part of a U.S. classified unit in World War Two. Wald, a Jewish man, had managed to get out of Austria just as the Germans took over in the early 1930s.
Wald moved to the United States and became part of the special statistical group. The US military approached Wald and his group. They wanted to better armour planes that flew into combat over Europe.
Armour is heavy. Too much and planes would not fly. They needed to be strategic with armour placement.
The military brought Wald detailed data of all the bullet holes and damage on the planes that returned from combat.
Most of the damage was along the main body of the plane and on parts of the wings. There was not as much damage (collectively) on the engines or nose.
The military felt that they should put more armour on planes where the most damage was…
